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CarefulStudy's Comments
I'm typing this comment quickly in the early morning; I hope it's concise and sensical. In my polite opinion: You're incorrect about ultra-high speed internet connections all over the planet within less than 15 years. (Well, on second thought, maybe you are technically already correct since very expensive custom high speed data solutions are already currently available in the many, many impoverished regions of the planet like Afganistan, southern FARC controlled Colombia and extremist ravaged Sudan.) But indeed, that is my point: Who can afford this ultra-high speed internet? It sure ain't the impoverished populations. These long cycle emerging classes won't be able to afford much on the web for a very long time to come . They still won't have much money by 2025. This is why I wonder about Amazon's global ambitions, especially compared to an already establishing, more traditional big box retailer like Carrefour,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], Tesco or Walmart. The aging Wall Street e-commerce "glee" isn't the fault of smart Sillicon Valley CEOs - it's the fault of simple American style presumptions thinking. By 2025, will Apple/Amazon/Nokia be able to manufacture a $5 phone with a sufficiently large enough screen to persuade a still existing 2 billion+ poor folks to finally make online purchases? Maybe yes . but I wonder: What will they be able to afford?Bazooooka, this is the problem with the Walmart/big box store critics. Alot of good,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], smart Wall Street/Silicon Valley types are too easily awed by e-commerce. Back here in the United States, do you really think that a future Whole Foods (or other organic stores) will have a dearth of customers preferring to look at and feel their vegetables before buying? These same "look/touch" buying habits apply particularly to economically emerging populations in Central and South America, Africa, India and . well . everywhere. And yes even for those folks lucky to save up enough for their first LCD TV - they're gonna want to shop at a physical store, then physically examine it, then select it and pay for it, then proudly carry the new TV with them in the borrowed car back home. The world's 2 or 3 or 4 billion poor can't and shouldn't be factored into Amazon's stock price and Mr Bezio's realistic planning . but . ahem . is it already?It's been a long 15 years since the internet "revolution." Why do people here in the USA still frequent shopping malls? Answer: To get out of the house. Fifteen years from now, will some people still want to get out of the house to do some shopping? Answer: Yes. in a couple of generations. Until then, I'm still suspicious of Amazon's high stock price. Yes, I know their revenues keep growing - but the age old Seeking Alpha discussion: Is it really, truly sustainable?Just my two cents. Hope you keep your excellent articles a comin'. I read them all.
Feb 24 09:48 AMI'm certain the company founders are real nice people and I'm certain you investors are real nice people. At the risk of being impolite,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I think ya'll are crazy. If there is a BBC/Discovery episode,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I'll eagerly watch it.
Feb 24 09:40 AMPeculiar rant. So your analysis is the market has rallied particularly well during four specific months during the four years of the Great Recession and forever it shall be. Such blind investing simply exposes positions to normal healthy pullbacks. Tuesday evening I commented on this upcoming sell off and I shorted well. Yesterday just before the close, I hoarded BAC. But before the end of today's session,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I'll position myself for the Italian elections on Monday. That's simple strategic trading. Good luck on your buy hold. Cheers
Feb 22 02:47 PMThere is a LOT of unmined gold remaining. $5000 gold enables profitable dredging on almost every river stream on the planet. Don't believe me? Then finance your own study. Worldwide,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], placer mining is mostly unregulated and even strict jurisdictions like California would reluctantly allow alluvial gold extraction at $5000 an ounce; the taxes and boost to the local economy would simply be too tempting. At $10,000+ gold can be extracted from water in the Bering Sea. Doubt that the state of Alaska and the EPA would allow it? Nevermind, the Russians would gleefully start from their side. And $10,000 gold enables the South African miners to finally finance mega huge open pit mines to extract the 500 million (!) remaining ounces there. Ditto Olympic Dam in Australia. There's massive amounts if natural gas in the world and when all else fails, everyone can go hack to uranium and thorium; no shortage of those two elements. I don't see energy induced inflation, which is far more important than the short term whims of stimulative central bankers. But to each their own. Should the vague 'Black Swan' event professied by so many a fearful Goldbug ever come true,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], I'll simply invest in my own startup to help increase AU supply and sell out before the price crash occurs. Capitalism is specifically and painfully effective in gold mining.
Jan 31 05:46 AMUm . I've been a tireless Natty bull all winter. (Check my previous comments to confirm.) Natural gas is the energy of the future,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], no doubt. However, I sometimes forget that LNG exports are 2-3 years away. But most importantly for us shorter term traders is the fact that the 8-14 day weather outlook is VERY bearish for higher natural gas prices. The cold 'Hudson Bay Polar Vortex' which I first commented about a couple of weeks ago is becoming . TRANSITORY. Yep, it's going to meander off of the Canadian east coast by this time next week. Zonal flow over North America will redevelop,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], just like all winter (and last winter, too.) Sure,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], a few more cold fronts will make their presence felt over the Northeast before the winter finishes, but that would simply be average. And we can't count on cooler temperatures in California and the Southwest to help support higher prices either. Strong west coast high pressure will bring 80+ degree weather to Phoenix and then a potentially strong stationary atmospheric river type MJO off of southern California in the extended forecast will send warm southerly flow up the Geat Plains, the South and maybe/probably the Northeast. I'm currently shorting.
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